Reporting note: this article draws on Sky Sports; LodiScore provides the summary and editorial framing.
Lewis Jones has a full weekend of Premier League predictions to get through, and his Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction is the one drawing most of the attention. The Chelsea vs Tottenham meeting at 5.30pm on Saturday is the headline act on a card that also takes in Aston Villa vs Manchester City, Liverpool vs Brighton and Manchester United vs Bournemouth.
Tottenham vs Chelsea prediction
Jones's angle is the card market, and recent history backs it. The last seven meetings between these two have averaged six cards per game. Referee Chris Kavanagh has shown 4.2 cards per 90 minutes since the start of last season, the third-highest average of any Premier League referee in that period.
The over 5.5 cards line is short at 20/23 with Sky Bet, so Jones goes hunting in the player market instead. Levi Colwill to be carded is priced at 4/1. The logic runs through James Maddison, who since 2018 has been responsible for 77 opposition players being booked, roughly one every 215 minutes. He has already helped get two opponents booked this season.
Jones's score prediction: 1-1.
Aston Villa's home record against Manchester City
Villa Park under Unai Emery has been an awkward trip for the elite. Since the start of 2023/24, Villa have played 13 home games against sides that finished in the top four that season, winning eight, drawing two and losing three. That works out at 2.00 points per game, and all three of their home wins over City sit inside that sample.
City arrive with seven league wins from seven, and the market reflects it. Jones still prefers Aston Villa double chance at 6/5. Score prediction: 2-1.
Arsenal's low-scoring home wins
David Moyes has made Everton tougher to beat, but the away record against the big boys is rough. Since first taking charge of West Ham, Moyes has lost 21 of his 22 away matches at Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Jones pairs an Arsenal win with under 3.5 goals at 10/11. That combination has landed in 12 of Arsenal's last 14 home matches across the Premier League and Champions League, including each of their last eight on home soil. Score prediction: 2-0.
Manchester United's worst start in 37 years
Seven points from seven Premier League games is United's worst start to a top-flight season in 37 years. They have gone seven matches without a win in all competitions, losing four and drawing three, and Jones is not buying the favourite tag.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last six meetings with United and have scored 15 goals across those games. Bournemouth draw no bet at 11/8 is the pick. Score prediction: 1-3.
Brighton's big-three record and the rest of the card
Since Fabian Hurzeler's appointment in 2024, Brighton have taken a league-high 19 points from 13 games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, scoring 20 and conceding 17. Jones takes draw no bet at 11/8 for the trip to Anfield. Score prediction: 1-2.
Elsewhere on the weekend card:
- Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: Liam Delap faces his former club, where he averaged 2.6 fouls per 90 minutes and was booked 12 times in the 2024/25 campaign. He has two yellows in five starts for Forest, and referee Thomas Bramall sent him off for two bookings in Chelsea's win at Wolves last season. Delap to be carded is 3/1. Prediction: 1-2.
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: Palace have conceded two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games, and Pierre Sage said he needed to change something after the 5-0 loss to Brighton. Jones likes 0-0 at half-time at 5/2. Prediction: 1-0.
- Coventry vs Fulham: Fulham average a league-high 33.5 touches in the opposition box per game, and only Brighton and Manchester City have a better open-play expected goals figure than their 1.34 per 90. Fulham to score over 1.5 goals is Evens. Prediction: 1-2.
- Hull vs Brentford: Centre-backs average 1.5 fouls drawn per 90 minutes against Hull. Kristoffer Ajer to be fouled at least once is 10/11, having drawn three fouls across his last two games. Prediction: 1-1.
- Sunderland vs Leeds: Leeds have drawn eight of their last 16 Premier League games, and backing draws has returned +46 points to £1 level stakes across the last two seasons. The draw is 21/10. Prediction: 1-1.
All odds and predictions come from Lewis Jones' column for skysports.com.
